Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Getnet Solomon Temtime

doi:doi:10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Getnet Solomon Temtime^*

Published in Hydrology (Volume 12, Issue 1)

Received: 16 January 2024 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 27 February 2024

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Abstract

Hydraulic structures like weirs, dams, spillways, and bridges require precise estimation of flood peaks at the intended return period in order to be planned, built, and maintained. In this paper, the findings of a study conducted on the Robigumoro River and the flow measurements taken are presented. The flood frequency analysis of the Robigumoro River was performed using the Gumbel distribution, which is a probability distribution commonly used for modeling river flows. This analysis is crucial as it aims to safeguard the lives and properties located downstream from the catchment area. The Gumbel distribution was employed to model the highest annual river flow over a span of 20 years (1990-2009). The investigation was carried out by the Ethiopian water and energy office, Abay Basin Development Authority. The Robigumoro River's maximum annual discharge over a 20-year period (1990–2009) was modeled using Gumbel distribution technique. From the trend line equation, R² value of 0.935 which shows that Gumbel’s distribution is suitable for predicting expected flow in the river. It can be concluded that the Gumbel distribution can accurately forecast expected river flow. The flood peak values were calculated using the same procedure for various return times. This helps with storm management in the research region. The estimated discharges obtained using the Gumbel's distribution and return periods (T) of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, 150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years are 177.327m³/s, 320.784m³/s, 446.553m³/s, 499.722m³/s, 530.727m³/s, 552.698m³/s, 583.38m³/s, and 605.577m³/s respectively. The accuracy of flood forecasts in the basin indicates their potential use in various applications such as the design of crucial hydraulic structures, river reach planning, construction of bridges, and conservation efforts for Robigumoro watershed.

Published in	Hydrology (Volume 12, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
Page(s)	1-7
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Flood Frequency Analysis, Gumbel Distribution Method, Robigumoro River

References

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[4]	Izinyon, O. C. and Igbinoba E. (2011), “Flood Frequency Analysis of Ikpoba River Catchment at Benin City gsing Log Pearson Type III distribution”, (JETEAS) 2(1): 50-55.
[5]	J. R. Stedinger and R. M. Vogel, “Frequency analysis of extreme events.” Handbook of Hydrology, chapter 18, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1993. Vol. 3, No. 10, 2013.
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[7]	N. Mujere. 2011. “Flood frequency analysis using the Gumbel distribution.” International Journal on Computer Science and Engineering (IJCSE), vol. 3, pp. 2774–2778, July 2011.
[8]	O. Solomon and O. Prince. “Flood Frequency Analysis of Osse River Using Gumbel’s Distribution”. Civil and Environmental Research, pp. 55-60.
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[10]	Tumbare, M. J. 2000. Mitigating floods in Southern Africa. Paper presented at the 1^st WARSFA/ WaterNet Symposium: Sustainable Use of Water Resources, 1-2 November, Maputo.
[11]	U. N. Ahmad, A. Shabri, and Z. A. Zakaria, “Flood frequency analysis of annual maximum stream flows using L-Moments and TL-Moments.” Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 5, pp. 243–253, 2011.
[12]	Zelenhasic, E. 1970. Theoretical Probability Distributions for Flood Peaks. Colorado University Press, Colorado.
[13]	Hailegeorgis, T. T.; Alfredsen, K. Regional flood frequency analysis and prediction in ungauged basins including estimation of major uncertainties for mid-Norway. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud. 2017, 9, 104–126.
[14]	Tegegne, G.; Kim, Y.-O. Strategies to enhance the reliability of flow quantile prediction in the gauged and ungauged basins. River Res. Appl. 2020, 36, 724–734.
[15]	Tegegne, G.; Kim, Y.-O. Representing Inflow Uncertainty for the Development of Monthly Reservoir Operations using Genetic Algorithms. J. Hydrol. 2020, 124876.
[16]	Shao, Q.; Wong, H.; Xia, J.; Ip, W.-C. Models for extremes using the extended three parameter Burr XII system with application to flood frequency analysis/Modèles d’extrêmes utilisant le système Burr XII étendu à trois paramètres et application à l’analyse fréquentielle des crues. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2004, 49.
[17]	Stedinger, J. R.; Gri_s, V. W. Flood Frequency Analysis in the United States: Time to Update; American Society of Civil Engineers: Reston, VA, USA, 2008.
[18]	Salinas, J. L.; Castellarin, A.; Viglione, A.; Kohnova, S.; Kjeldsen, T. R. Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe-Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, 18, 4381.
[19]	Singh, V. P.; Strupczewski, W. G. On the status of flood frequency analysis. Hydrol. Process. 2002, 16, 3737–3740.
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Temtime, G. S. (2024). Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology, 12(1), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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Temtime, G. S. Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology. 2024, 12(1), 1-7. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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AMA Style

Temtime GS. Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology. 2024;12(1):1-7. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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@article{10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11,
  author = {Getnet Solomon Temtime},
  title = {Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  volume = {12},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-7},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hyd.20241201.11},
  abstract = {Hydraulic structures like weirs, dams, spillways, and bridges require precise estimation of flood peaks at the intended return period in order to be planned, built, and maintained. In this paper, the findings of a study conducted on the Robigumoro River and the flow measurements taken are presented. The flood frequency analysis of the Robigumoro River was performed using the Gumbel distribution, which is a probability distribution commonly used for modeling river flows. This analysis is crucial as it aims to safeguard the lives and properties located downstream from the catchment area. The Gumbel distribution was employed to model the highest annual river flow over a span of 20 years (1990-2009). The investigation was carried out by the Ethiopian water and energy office, Abay Basin Development Authority. The Robigumoro River's maximum annual discharge over a 20-year period (1990–2009) was modeled using Gumbel distribution technique. From the trend line equation, R2 value of 0.935 which shows that Gumbel’s distribution is suitable for predicting expected flow in the river. It can be concluded that the Gumbel distribution can accurately forecast expected river flow. The flood peak values were calculated using the same procedure for various return times. This helps with storm management in the research region. The estimated discharges obtained using the Gumbel's distribution and return periods (T) of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, 150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years are 177.327m3/s, 320.784m3/s, 446.553m3/s, 499.722m3/s, 530.727m3/s, 552.698m3/s, 583.38m3/s, and 605.577m3/s respectively. The accuracy of flood forecasts in the basin indicates their potential use in various applications such as the design of crucial hydraulic structures, river reach planning, construction of bridges, and conservation efforts for Robigumoro watershed.
},
 year = {2024}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia
AU  - Getnet Solomon Temtime
Y1  - 2024/02/27
PY  - 2024
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
T2  - Hydrology
JF  - Hydrology
JO  - Hydrology
SP  - 1
EP  - 7
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-7617
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
AB  - Hydraulic structures like weirs, dams, spillways, and bridges require precise estimation of flood peaks at the intended return period in order to be planned, built, and maintained. In this paper, the findings of a study conducted on the Robigumoro River and the flow measurements taken are presented. The flood frequency analysis of the Robigumoro River was performed using the Gumbel distribution, which is a probability distribution commonly used for modeling river flows. This analysis is crucial as it aims to safeguard the lives and properties located downstream from the catchment area. The Gumbel distribution was employed to model the highest annual river flow over a span of 20 years (1990-2009). The investigation was carried out by the Ethiopian water and energy office, Abay Basin Development Authority. The Robigumoro River's maximum annual discharge over a 20-year period (1990–2009) was modeled using Gumbel distribution technique. From the trend line equation, R2 value of 0.935 which shows that Gumbel’s distribution is suitable for predicting expected flow in the river. It can be concluded that the Gumbel distribution can accurately forecast expected river flow. The flood peak values were calculated using the same procedure for various return times. This helps with storm management in the research region. The estimated discharges obtained using the Gumbel's distribution and return periods (T) of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, 150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years are 177.327m3/s, 320.784m3/s, 446.553m3/s, 499.722m3/s, 530.727m3/s, 552.698m3/s, 583.38m3/s, and 605.577m3/s respectively. The accuracy of flood forecasts in the basin indicates their potential use in various applications such as the design of crucial hydraulic structures, river reach planning, construction of bridges, and conservation efforts for Robigumoro watershed.

VL  - 12
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Getnet Solomon Temtime

Department of Hydraulic and Water Resource Engineering, Wollo University, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

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Temtime, G. S. (2024). Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology, 12(1), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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ACS Style

Temtime, G. S. Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology. 2024, 12(1), 1-7. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

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AMA Style

Temtime GS. Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology. 2024;12(1):1-7. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11,
  author = {Getnet Solomon Temtime},
  title = {Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  volume = {12},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-7},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hyd.20241201.11},
  abstract = {Hydraulic structures like weirs, dams, spillways, and bridges require precise estimation of flood peaks at the intended return period in order to be planned, built, and maintained. In this paper, the findings of a study conducted on the Robigumoro River and the flow measurements taken are presented. The flood frequency analysis of the Robigumoro River was performed using the Gumbel distribution, which is a probability distribution commonly used for modeling river flows. This analysis is crucial as it aims to safeguard the lives and properties located downstream from the catchment area. The Gumbel distribution was employed to model the highest annual river flow over a span of 20 years (1990-2009). The investigation was carried out by the Ethiopian water and energy office, Abay Basin Development Authority. The Robigumoro River's maximum annual discharge over a 20-year period (1990–2009) was modeled using Gumbel distribution technique. From the trend line equation, R2 value of 0.935 which shows that Gumbel’s distribution is suitable for predicting expected flow in the river. It can be concluded that the Gumbel distribution can accurately forecast expected river flow. The flood peak values were calculated using the same procedure for various return times. This helps with storm management in the research region. The estimated discharges obtained using the Gumbel's distribution and return periods (T) of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, 150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years are 177.327m3/s, 320.784m3/s, 446.553m3/s, 499.722m3/s, 530.727m3/s, 552.698m3/s, 583.38m3/s, and 605.577m3/s respectively. The accuracy of flood forecasts in the basin indicates their potential use in various applications such as the design of crucial hydraulic structures, river reach planning, construction of bridges, and conservation efforts for Robigumoro watershed.
},
 year = {2024}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel Distribution Method: A Case of Robigumero River, Abay Basin, Ethiopia
AU  - Getnet Solomon Temtime
Y1  - 2024/02/27
PY  - 2024
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
T2  - Hydrology
JF  - Hydrology
JO  - Hydrology
SP  - 1
EP  - 7
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-7617
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20241201.11
AB  - Hydraulic structures like weirs, dams, spillways, and bridges require precise estimation of flood peaks at the intended return period in order to be planned, built, and maintained. In this paper, the findings of a study conducted on the Robigumoro River and the flow measurements taken are presented. The flood frequency analysis of the Robigumoro River was performed using the Gumbel distribution, which is a probability distribution commonly used for modeling river flows. This analysis is crucial as it aims to safeguard the lives and properties located downstream from the catchment area. The Gumbel distribution was employed to model the highest annual river flow over a span of 20 years (1990-2009). The investigation was carried out by the Ethiopian water and energy office, Abay Basin Development Authority. The Robigumoro River's maximum annual discharge over a 20-year period (1990–2009) was modeled using Gumbel distribution technique. From the trend line equation, R2 value of 0.935 which shows that Gumbel’s distribution is suitable for predicting expected flow in the river. It can be concluded that the Gumbel distribution can accurately forecast expected river flow. The flood peak values were calculated using the same procedure for various return times. This helps with storm management in the research region. The estimated discharges obtained using the Gumbel's distribution and return periods (T) of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, 150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years are 177.327m3/s, 320.784m3/s, 446.553m3/s, 499.722m3/s, 530.727m3/s, 552.698m3/s, 583.38m3/s, and 605.577m3/s respectively. The accuracy of flood forecasts in the basin indicates their potential use in various applications such as the design of crucial hydraulic structures, river reach planning, construction of bridges, and conservation efforts for Robigumoro watershed.

VL  - 12
IS  - 1
ER  -

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