Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow

Nega Gudeta Demmissie; Tamene Agugna Demissie; Fayera Gudu Tufa

doi:doi:10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow

Nega Gudeta Demmissie, Tamene Agugna Demissie, Fayera Gudu Tufa

Published in Hydrology (Volume 6, Issue 3)

Received: 10 October 2018 Accepted: 10 November 2018 Published: 19 December 2018

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Abstract

Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.

Published in	Hydrology (Volume 6, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
Page(s)	78-87
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change Impact, Hydrologic Model, Stream Flow, SWAT Model

References

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APA Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie, Tamene Agugna Demissie, Fayera Gudu Tufa. (2018). Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology, 6(3), 78-87. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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ACS Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie; Tamene Agugna Demissie; Fayera Gudu Tufa. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology. 2018, 6(3), 78-87. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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AMA Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie, Tamene Agugna Demissie, Fayera Gudu Tufa. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology. 2018;6(3):78-87. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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@article{10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11,
  author = {Nega Gudeta Demmissie and Tamene Agugna Demissie and Fayera Gudu Tufa},
  title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {78-87},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hyd.20180603.11},
  abstract = {Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow
AU  - Nega Gudeta Demmissie
AU  - Tamene Agugna Demissie
AU  - Fayera Gudu Tufa
Y1  - 2018/12/19
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
T2  - Hydrology
JF  - Hydrology
JO  - Hydrology
SP  - 78
EP  - 87
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-7617
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
AB  - Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Nega Gudeta Demmissie

Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Mizan- Tepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia
Tamene Agugna Demissie

Department of Hydraulic and water Resources Engineering, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
Fayera Gudu Tufa

Department of Hydraulic and water Resources Engineering, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie, Tamene Agugna Demissie, Fayera Gudu Tufa. (2018). Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology, 6(3), 78-87. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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ACS Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie; Tamene Agugna Demissie; Fayera Gudu Tufa. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology. 2018, 6(3), 78-87. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

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AMA Style

Nega Gudeta Demmissie, Tamene Agugna Demissie, Fayera Gudu Tufa. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow. Hydrology. 2018;6(3):78-87. doi: 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11,
  author = {Nega Gudeta Demmissie and Tamene Agugna Demissie and Fayera Gudu Tufa},
  title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  volume = {6},
  number = {3},
  pages = {78-87},
  doi = {10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.hyd.20180603.11},
  abstract = {Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Kulfo River Flow
AU  - Nega Gudeta Demmissie
AU  - Tamene Agugna Demissie
AU  - Fayera Gudu Tufa
Y1  - 2018/12/19
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
T2  - Hydrology
JF  - Hydrology
JO  - Hydrology
SP  - 78
EP  - 87
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-7617
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hyd.20180603.11
AB  - Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download